Home
Punting & Life LessonsHow To Assess a RaceContact UsMembership Info
Home


DO YOU HAVE THE TAJODDS APP FOR ANDROID?


WHAT ABOUT TWITTER@TAJODDS?

Have you read the punting lessons?



Need more details? Email Taj on tajrossi3@yahoo.com.au for more details







IN 2016/17 WE EXPECT TO ACHIEVE A 28% STRIKE RATE AND AROUND $5.00 AVG WIN PRICE. ONLY BETTING RACES WILL BE POSTED HERE WITH UPDATES ON TWITTER. MEMBERSHIPS ONLY IN SPRING. OTHERWISE ALL SELECTIONS ARE FREE HERE ON TAJODDS. THE MAJOR BLACK TYPE RACES WILL BE POSTED BUT MAY NOT BE BETTING RACES




New memberships will be offered from Sept 1st 2016

Contact tajrossi3@yahoo.com.au to be added

Payment can be made via direct deposit (email us for details) or via :

www.paypal.com.au using the payment email (gordon2@bigpond.net.au)


Options:

1.  $50/month (refunded if no profit for month)
2. $125 covering Sept/Oct/Nov (no refund)
3. Annual fee $500 (no refund)

Long term profits (return on investment flat stake win only)as at Aug 2016:
Metro Ace 7% (since 2005)
Rural Ace 24%
Rural Value bet 23%


THE REAL TASK OF THE PUNTER

I must say I get really sick of all these punting shows on RSN, Racing & Sports, Sky, Racing.com etc all trying to find the "winner" of the race in hand. Finding the winner is a pointless exercise if you are taking a price that means you are going to lose big time over time.
Can all you so called "tipsters" please provide a real punting show that identifies the 3 biggest value horses at current fixed odds in the main events. Here is a sample from Tajodds.com Memsie stakes as per our assessment below:

1st Biggest Value horse is Palentino at $9.00 rated $3.50
2nd Biggest Value horse is Mahuta at $8.00 rated $3.90
3rd Biggest Value runner is Sofia Rosa at $21.00 rated $11.00
4th Biggest Value runner is Tarzino at $18, rated $14.00

The % amount any given horse is OVER our rated price expresses the best value, not who we might think will win the race.

The problem is most media tipsters have no idea about what might be a value price or how to assess this. People pay BIG $$$ for services that tell them speed, trial times, race sectionals, tips etc etc but give no indication of the right price to take. What a complete waste of time!

The best jockeys, like McDonald, Bowman etc, often have the worst return on investment (ROI%). The best barriers often have a poorer ROI%. The best trainers have no greater profit margin. Imagine if you were like most punters and looked for in-form horses, drawn well, map well in speed, are well weighted on hcp, top jockey and trainer. You would lose more than most punters as the ROI% is shocking at around -55%. The strike rate is good (well done, you picked some winners!), but the avg win price ensures a massive loss. Get the point?

There are some variables that are specific to Group races on our calendar that appear to give us value. These factors should be used to adjust your value prices. Give a bonus for the following:

Cox Plate: Male horse, 3 runs this prep, has won this prep

Caulfield Cup: <8yo, barrier 3 to 15, >56Kg, <5 runs this prep, jockey same as last start and >10% strike rate

Melbourne Cup: <7yo male, TAB No 1 to 6, barrier 3 to 14, 3 to 6 runs this prep, jock >14%

In these high pool races, the high % jocks can be value unlike the general Saturday or mid week racing. These variables increase both win % and ROI% (=Value)




Rosehill Raceguide - 27 August 2016
Rail: True.    Track: SOFT 5   Mostly Sunny (Max: 18)

6 
Racing Mates (BM85) $85,0001200m
SOFT 5 3U WT:54.0 Type:BM85 API:14.53 $4.00 looks overs about the 4. Save the 6 if betting, I'm not3:10 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
80389 
Hurrara 5 () (Garry Frazer)     K Jennings (a2)  
62.0 42.5  
232x1 
His Majesty 8 () (Kim Waugh)     Tim Clark  
61.5 45  
00x49 
Gold Symphony 9 () (P & P Snowden)     Kerrin Mcevoy  
59.5 40  
x110x 
Sir Bacchus 4 () (Chris Waller)     Hugh Bowman  
59.5 51.5 $3.00 
63612 
Encostanati 7 () (Bjorn Baker)     Deanne Panya (a3)  
59.0 48 $9.00 
1414x 
Handfast 10 () (John O'shea)     James Mcdonald  
59.0 50.5 $3.70 
0013x 
Kellyville Flyer 2 () (Jason Attard)     Josh Parr  
57.5 38  
6135x 
Wild 'n' Famous 1 () (P & P Snowden)     Blake Shinn  
57.5 39  
130x4 
Snoopy 3 () (Michael & Wayne & John Hawkes)     Tommy Berry  
57.0 49.5 $5.00 
10 x5232 
Allez Chival - () (Lauri Wray)       
54.5  scr 
11 x7731 
Oscar's Choice 6 () (Bob Holloway)     Jason Collett  
54.0 41  


Caulfield Raceguide - 27 August 2016
Rail: Out 6m Entire Circuit.    Track: SOFT 5  


5 
The Resimax Heath 1100 Stakes $150,0001100m
SOFT 5 4U Type:OPEN Group 3 API:28.22 I do prefer the younger horses in these events coming into another Spring. The Mare is good but surely some of these young ones can now step up. Happy to lay the top 22:50 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
x321x 
Under The Louvre 10 () (Robert Smerdon)     Nicholas Hall  
59.0 47.5  
420x7 
Shiraz 9 () (Tony Mc Evoy)     Luke Currie  
58.0 44.5  
9230x 
Santa Ana Lane 5 () (Lee & Anthony Freedman)     Dwayne Dunn  
57.5 52.5 $3.40 
215x1 
Redzel 12 () (P & P Snowden)     Mark Zahra  
57.0 51 $5.50 
6148x 
Diamond Oasis 6 () (Darren Weir)     Michael Dee  
56.0 44.5  
1x0x1 
Hellbent 8 () (Darren Weir)     Damien Oliver  
56.0 53 $3.00 
1735x 
Dan Zephyr 1 () (P G Carey)     Rhys Mcleod  
56.0 45.5  
28x20 
Trevinder 7 () (Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra)     Ben Melham  
56.0 47.5  
2911x 
We've Got This 4 () (Greg Eurell)     Craig Newitt  
56.0 43  
10 x60x8 
Sunday Escape 2 () (Andrew Murray)     H Coffey  
56.0 41.5  
11 93801 
Jersey Whistler 11 () (Tara Cochrane)     Luke Nolen  
56.0 37  
12 2x195 
Truculent - () (Shaun Dwyer)     Daniel Moor  
56.0  scr 
13 11l0x 
Miss Promiscuity 3 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Damian Lane  
55.5 49 $12.00 





 

The Memsie G1 is always an interesting race coming into Spring and we often get a look at some early Cox Plate hopefuls, maybe a cup type runner and some fitter sprinters. The race is rarely one for an older horse but can be some value for a quality fresh younger mare. I would be wary of horses aged 6 or over in this type of event in late August. No markets yet but they wont be far away. I wouldn't be betting too early on any Group One as markets will drift later on race day
7 
N.Z. Bloodstock Memsie Stakes $500,0001400m
SOFT 5 3U Type:OPEN Group 1 API:116.33 Just prefer the 11 over the 8. Mahuta has not really run any times at all yet but I do like the look of him. BH Bart has the quality but not sure re the price on offer. Sofia Rosa looks the best female option and Tarzino will enjoy the moderate pace set up by Ollie on LOTS. This is a non betting race4:10 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
21x2x 
Prince Of Penzance 11 () (Darren Weir)     H Coffey  
59.0 49.5  
1212x 
Black Heart Bart 5 () (Darren Weir)poor value thus far     Brad Rawiller  
59.0 56.5 $3.40 
0x415 
Lord Of The Sky 1 () (Robbie Laing)     Damien Oliver  
59.0 51  
21008 
Charmed Harmony 3 () (John Sadler)     Thomas Sadler  
59.0 45.5  
2018x 
He Or She 12 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Dwayne Dunn  
59.0 48  
246x3 
Tashbeeh 14 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Corey Parish  
59.0 50.5  
26x5x 
Alpine Eagle 6 () (Tony Mc Evoy)     Luke Currie  
59.0 53.5  
10x36 
Mahuta 2 () (Darren Weir)$8.00 available     J Allen  
58.5 56 $4.10 
4214x 
Tarzino 9 () (Mick Price)$18.00 available     Craig Newitt  
58.5 52.5 $16.00 
10 3061x 
Tavago 8 () (Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young)     Ben Melham  
58.5 50.5  
11 212x4 
Palentino 10 () (Darren Weir)$9.00 available     Mark Zahra  
58.5 56.0 $4.00 
12 1113x 
Tally 13 () (John O'shea)     Michael Dee  
58.5 49.5  
13 3540x 
Rising Romance 4 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Damian Lane  
57.0 51.5  
14 1121x 
Sofia Rosa 7 () (Stephen Marsh)$21.00 available     Michael Walker  
56.5 53 $13.00 



Morphettville Raceguide - 27 August 2016
Rail: Main Track: Out 8m 1200m to 400m. 6m Remainder, Sectional 610m. MPKS: Out 3m 1000m to 400m. True Remainder. 
Track:    Mostly Sunny (Max: 17)

6 
Quayclean (BM90) $42,0001200m
WT:54.0 Type:BM90 API:11.59 Miss Gunpowder looks too classy here but I'm just not convinced yet so back Bay Road at around the $4.80 mark3:48 pm


TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
4x95x 
Out Of Coober 2 () (W J Smart)     R J Hurdle  
60.0 36.5  
09x61 
Outlandish Lad 1 () (Dennis O'leary)     Eran Boyd (a3)  
58.0 47  
80x14 
Scratchy Lass 4 () (John Hickmott)     Jason Holder  
57.5 48.5 $12.00 
116x1 
Bay Road 7 () (Richard Jolly)     Jake Toeroek  
55.0 50.5 $4.20 
x227x 
Miss Gunpowder 8 () (Phillip Stokes)     Emily Finnegan (a2)  
54.5 53.5 $1.70 
1123x 
C'est Beau La Vie 5 () (Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas)     Clare Lindop  
54.0 46.5  
25114 
Heza Ripper 3 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Matthew Neilson  
54.0 48  
1x256 
Babitzin 6 () (Sam Burford)     Jamie Kah  
54.0 40.5 

7 
Happy 103Rd B'day S Coyle-Bm75 $42,0002030m
WT:54.0 Type:BM75 API:2.47 Did like the 7 until I saw the odds! No bets4:28 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
61125 
General Custer 1 () (Andrew Noblet)     Jamie Kah  
59.0 39 $6.50 
31212 
Snitzelwood 6 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Matthew Neilson  
58.0 38 $11.00 
94752 
Barge And Charge 9 () (Grant Young)     Dom Tourneur  
57.0 33.5  
14132 
Capitoline 4 () (Scott Whittle)     Zac B Spain (a2)  
55.0 39 $6.50 
26519 
Danouli 2 () (John Hickmott)     Jason Holder  
55.0 36.5  
x8966 
Ferro Nero 5 () (Nigel Blackiston)     Joe Bowditch  
55.0 37.5 $13.00 
71572 
My Sanctuary 10 () (Darren Weir)     Clare Lindop  
55.0 42 $2.70 
8 0x003 
Darlux - () (Brian Mcgrath)     Paul Gatt  
54.5  scr 
x40x4 
Mr Satnav 8 () (Eric Musgrove)     Damien Thornton  
54.0 37 $19.00 
10 66222 
Mr Andre 3 () (R H Wilkinson)     Emily Finnegan (a2)  
54.0 36.5  
11 x7260 
Catch Me Latar 7 () (Yvonne Forrest)     Jake Toeroek  
54.0 17  
12 9x080 
Sebring Magic 11 () (Ryan Balfour)     Matthew Poon (a3)  
54.0 17.5  




Gold Coast Raceguide - 27 August 2016
Rail: 8m 1400-W/Post; 4.5m Remainder. (Pent: 6.49).    Track: SOFT 7   Mostly Sunny (Max: 21)


1 
Minc Mdn Plate $14,0001800m
HEAVY 8 WT:SW Type:MDN API:0.37 Back the 10 if track Good 3 to Soft 6. No bets if 7 or worse12:37 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
0x888 
Berlinetta 10 () (Marcus Wilson)     M Shimodaira (a3)  
57.5 24  
52623 
Elusive Element 8 () (Trevor Thomas)     Luke Tarrant  
57.5 29.5 $3.70 
08 
Likapostie 6 () (Mark Palmer)     Brooke Ainsworth (a1.5)  
57.5 17.5  
x6039 
Mansale 1 () (Stuart Kendrick)     Adam Sewell (a3)  
57.5 17  
74665 
Mr Malu 3 () (Marcus Wilson)     Luke Rolls  
57.5 21.5  
68x55 
Regularity 9 () (Eric Singh)     Michael Murphy (a2)  
57.5 24  
00296 
Sushi Ole 4 () (Mark Palmer)       
57.5 18.5  
x7055 
Jechi 2 () (John P Thompson)     M Mc Guren  
55.5 27 $8.00 
07242 
Queen Gee 7 () (Paul N Wallace)     Daniel Griffin  
55.5 30 $3.30 
10 66x65 
Trust Misty 5 () (Paul Facoory)Good to Soft 6     J Missen  
53.0 28.5 $5.00 





2 
Batch Mewing Lawyers Mdn Hcp $14,0001300m
 WT:54.0 Type:MDN API:0.55 Consider the 7 if Soft or better, and the 13 if heavy only1:12 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
 
Wongur 11 () (Matthew Dunn)     M Mc Guren  
59.0 21  
523x3 
Treasure Island 8 () (John Holcombe)     Luke Londregan  
58.0 29.5 $4.20 
Average Out 4 () (Paul Facoory)     J Missen  
56.0 25 $26.00 
265x3 
Shoutin' 1 () (Kelly Purdy)     Jag Guthmann-Chester (a3)  
56.0 30 $3.80 
78x07 
Rock The Boat 13 () (Mark Palmer)     Brooke Ainsworth (a1.5)  
55.5 22.5  
563x 
Tizabee 3 () (Ben Ahrens)     Ben Cornell  
55.5 22  
3x427 
Clear Reflection 5 () (Steve Field)SOFT     Brendan Newport  
55.0 27.5 $7.50 
22x90 
Watched 2 () (Bryan Guy)     Luke Rolls  
55.0 27.5 $7.50 
797x 
Pillsbury Lane 10 () (L D Kelly)     Noriyuki Masuda (a2)  
54.5  
10 543x8 
Adjourned 12 () (Bradley Smith)     Luke Tarrant  
54.0 8.5  
11 x0940 
Dime Thief 9 () (Katina Cotiopoulos)     Andrew Spinks  
54.0 18  
12 00x74 
Island Empire 7 () (Neil Hocking)     Vanessa Johnston  
54.0 23  
13 x0x56 
Scensay 14 () (Simon Hunter)heavy     Scott Galloway  
54.0 27 $9.50 
E14 87999 
Stormy Leo 6 () (David Scanes)       
54.0 24  




8 
Dagger 373 Hcp (C1) $14,0001400m
SOFT 7 CG WT:54.0 Type:CL1 API:1.75 If the track stayed heavy I'd back Pitbull, but no bets if track SOFT by Race 8 which is expected as this track improves rapidly5:02 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
1x387 
Plouc 8 () (Matthew Dunn)     M Mc Guren  
59.0 31.5 $8.50 
32142 
Stormy Destiny 2 () (Helen Page)     Jag Guthmann-Chester (a3)  
58.0 35 $2.90 
9x516 
Creationist 7 () (Lisa Garrett)     Daniel Griffin  
56.5 29  
338x4 
Don't Rush Me 1 () (Darryl Hansen)     Luke Tarrant  
56.5 18.5  
460x8 
Thermal Unit 3 () (David Kelly)     M Shimodaira (a3)  
56.5 29  
99364 
Drill 11 () (John Wallace)     Noriyuki Masuda (a2)  
56.0 31.5 $8.50 
x0261 
Bo Bo Horse 6 () (Bryan Guy)     Brooke Ainsworth (a1.5)  
55.0 33.5 $4.20 
2x551 
Ponty 12 () (Les Ross)     C Dell  
55.0 27  
9x684 
Pitbull 10 () (Kent Fleming)Heavy Only     Michael Murphy (a2)  
54.0 31 $11.00 
10 44254 
Amber Lights 5 () (Julie Green)     Beau-Dene Appo  
54.0 22.5  
11 90497 
Give 'em Curry 4 () (Kevin Devine)     Geoffrey Goold  
54.0 21.5  
12 62755 
Abseil 9 () (Diane G Murphy)     Ms A Badger  
54.0 22  


Doomben Raceguide - 27 August 2016
Rail: True Entire Course. (Pent: 5.15).    Track: SOFT 6   Sunny (Max: 21)
3 
Jim Beam Hcp $60,0001350m
SOFT 6 WT:54.0 Type:OPEN API:8.521:27 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
4195x 
Transporter 2 () (G J Thompson)       
59.0 39.5  
31143 
Flamboyer 5 () (Kelly Doughty)     Matthew Mc Gillivray (a2)  
58.5 53.5 $2.80 
25x54 
Jopa 1 () (Robert Heathcote)     Bridget Grylls (a1.5)  
56.5 47.5  
9977x 
Perplexity 4 () (Chris Munce)     Ryan Wiggins  
55.0 42  
x1112 
Angel Dancer 7 () (Michael Nolan)     Jim Byrne  
54.0 54.5 $2.20 
63231 
Total Authority 3 () (Les Ross)     Michael Cahill  
54.0 50 $11.00 
41744 
Punta Norte 6 () (Robert Heathcote)     Glen Colless  
54.0 47.5  
8 0758x 
High Esteem - () (Tony Gollan)     R Fradd  
54.0  scr 
24054 
Divine Service 8 () (Darryl Hansen)     Michael Hellyer  
54.0 45  

6 
Coke Zero Plate (C3) $40,0001350m
SOFT 6 WT:SW Type:CL3 API:3.98 Monitor for inside draw by race 63:22 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
0x081 
Dandy One 7 () (Les Ross)     Brad Stewart  
59.0 39.5 $11.00 
x1861 
Georgio 8 () (Debbie Newham)     Brad Pengelly  
59.0 36  
3 x49x5 
Happy Snitzel - () (Gerald Ryan)     P Hammersley  
59.0  scr 
17x14 
Heroism 3 () (Terry Mccarthy)     A E Denby (a3)  
59.0 40 $8.50 
12x54 
Man Of His Word 9 () (Bruce W Hill)     Glen Colless  
59.0 41 $5.50 
6 146x4 
Medal Afrique - () (Todd Payne)     Gemma Steele  
59.0 34  
064x5 
I'll Take The Jag 16 () (Toby Edmonds)     Jim Byrne  
57.5 36.5  
642x1 
Monsieur Gustave 1 () (Darryl Hansen)     J Lloyd  
57.5 43.5 $2.80 
51933 
Naranja 2 () (Kris Lees)     Michael Cahill  
57.5 35.5  
10 447x5 
No Thankyou Ali - () (Allan Ross)     James Orman  
57.5  scr 
11 2869x 
Boundary 6 () (Brian Smith)     Larry Cassidy  
57.0 38  
12 10x01 
Spirit Minded - () (Robert Heathcote)       
57.0  scr 
13 38481 
Testability 11 () (Ruth Cooper)       
57.0 36.5  
14 8x9x8 
Liberty's Choice 17 () (Tony Gollan)     Ms T Harrison  
56.0 30  
15 51550 
Rakitno 13 () (Melissa Leitch)     Bridget Grylls (a1.5)  
54.0 33  
16 17x53 
O'reilly Cyrus 5 () (Liam Birchley)     Jason Taylor  
51.5 40.5 $7.00 
E17 60510 
Dutch Treat 4 () (Trevor J White)     Tiffani Brooker (a3)  
57.0 33.5  
E18 x7412 
Bancroft 12 () (Matthew Dunn)       
57.5 35.5  
E19 x3713 
Lady Duporth 14 () (P & W Hulbert)     Michael Hellyer  
55.5 33  
E20 12222 
Western Belle 15 () (Toby Edmonds)       
55.5 30.5  
E21 65221 
Legal Counsel 10 () (Lennie Wheeler)       
59.0 27.5  
E22 534x1 
Diddy Win Diddy 18 () (Pat Duff)       
59.0 28  



Disclaimer: The information contained on this website always remains property and copyright of tajodds.com 
This is not a gambling website, The website contain's the thought's and opinion's of it's publisher's. Anyone who uses this information does so at his/her own risk.

Trading as tajodds.com and hereinafter referred to as The Publisher accepts no responsibility for inaccuracies, typographical errors or completeness of the information displayed on the website.


The publisher shall not be liable for any financial losses or costs suffered in relation to any of the information and/or selections supplied by any of our services. Any bets or wagers placed based on information and/or services displayed on this website is at the sole discretion of the purchaser or investor.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Publisher makes no guarantee of availability of the website services and accepts no responsibility for interrupted service of any kind or for failure to provide information and/or selections from any of our services for any reason.
When gambling we suggest you only gamble with an amount you are comfortable betting. And with money you can afford to lose.
HomePunting & Life LessonsHow To Assess a RaceContact UsMembership Info