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IN 2016/17 WE

EXPECT TO ACHIEVE A 28% STRIKE RATE AND AROUND $5.00 AVG WIN PRICE. ONLY BETTING RACES WILL BE POSTED HERE WITH UPDATES ON TWITTER. MEMBERSHIPS ONLY IN SPRING. OTHERWISE ALL SELECTIONS ARE FREE HERE ON TAJODDS. THE MAJOR BLACK TYPE RACES WILL BE POSTED BUT MAY NOT BE BETTING RACES





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Long term profitsas at sept 2016:
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Rural Ace 24% ROI
Rural Value bet 23% ROI

100% accountability - results sheets updated daily


Hi all

2016/17 Member bets thus far


Good old Mio did what we thought and ran a drum at big odds for our one bet this weekend. This takes our new season profit to 116% return on invest which is a nice start. Looks like some races might get cancelled again early this week with plenty of rain about.


August/Sept/Oct Member bets thus far

Metro 
Catch A Fire 1st $7.60
Mr Individual 2nd Loss
Sword Of Light X Loss
Voodoo Lad 1st $3.30
Mr Individual 2nd LOSS
Revolving Door X LOSS
Mio Dio 3rd (75% X $4.95)

Rural Ace
War Jet 1st $7.00
D'Orsevist 2nd LOss
Harmonium Bells Loss
Whirlwind Ascent Loss

Rural Value
Raw Sugar X Loss
Arctic Blast X Loss

Outlay 13 units
Return 21.61

Profit = 43% on outlay

MOONEE VALLEY

STUTT STAKES
Pretty simple here. Focus on the ones at the top of the saddle cloths for male and female for best value. Possible Detective, HeyDoc, Tessera, 

MOIR
Chautauqua ticks the most boxes with rail true

STOCK STAKES
Another stakes race where you need to look up the top at horses like Rising Romance, Miss Rose Delago 

RANDWICK

EPSOM HCP
In major handicaps it is often wise to compress the weights when doing your own handicapping. Not much, just a little as there is little empirical evidence to suggest more than 0.5Kg advantage at the top of the weights. That being siad, the record of the top 3 saddlecloths in the Epsom is not strong and there is an advantage bubble for those weighted with saddlecloths in the 4-10 range. There is a definite trend away from horses older than 6yo. There is also much better value (not strike rate so much) for horses drawn wider than barrier 7 and with an SP of <$12

METROPOLITAN
The trip over the distance sees us compress the weights to advantage runners 1 to 9 here. There is also an advantage to horses 5 to 7 years of age and those drawn inside barrier 10. These trends might make Antonio a lay at the current odds

FLIGHT STAKES
Stakes races often have a very familiar trend that has at least face validity; winners coming from the top 5 saddlecloths. This is class in action. The stats show good value for last start winners at an SP <$5

PREMIER STAKES
An unusual history, but there looks like a value trend toward the older female runner >4yo and maybe a slight trend toward barriers 4 to 8? I find this quite a bit for fillies and mares. Drawing inside 4 in mixed company is not a good recipe.

ROMAN CONSUL
Females can go ok as well here although no runners this year. The trend is for female backmarkers with > 2 runs under the belt and > barrier 4 as usual. For males it is not so clear but focus on those > barrier 4, not 1st up and that have an SP < $5

FLEMINGTON

GILGAI
Stats suggest a strong trend toward the 4 and 5yo horse and big questions over that age. Horses carrying over 55.5Kg have a good record here so worth looking at Stratum Star, Faatinah and Durendal

BART CUMMINGS
Consider the 4 to 7yo males here and those drawn inside barrier 8 seem to represent better value long term. There is also a slight trend away from the top weights over the trip here so give some bonus to Pentathlon from Swacadelic, Aloft, then out to the top 2 Almoonqith and Excessive Knowledge

MANIFOLD
Focus on the 2 saddlecloths here in Chipanda and Exocet

TURNBULL
Suits both sexes and hard to find any significant trends here but certainly barriers 4 through 8 are well placed in results. Preferment, Tarzino, Happy Trails, Hartnell and Jameka

BLAZER
This race favours the 4yo mares with an SP<$17. Consider Antelucan

Moonee Valley Raceguide - 30 September 2016
Rail: True Entire Circuit. (Pent: 4.72).    Track: GOOD 4

1 
Msc Signs (BM90) $80,0001500m
GOOD 4 WT:55.0 Type:BM90 API:7.79 Just a little concerned about the 1 barrier and lack of value now. Watch only or $2.60+6:30 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
84008 
Rugged Cross 7 () (Darren Weir)     Ben Allen (a2)  
60.5 36.5  
0396x 
Sonntag 9 () (Henry Dwyer)     Beau Mertens (a3)  
60.5 42.5  
957x0 
Radical 5 () (Matt Laurie)     Ben Melham  
57.0 48.5 $16.00 
60852 
Sadaqa 10 () (Mick Cerchi)     Dwayne Dunn  
57.0 48  
34127 
Marwood 6 () (Mitchell Freedman)     Damian Lane  
55.5 50.5 $5.50 
113x0 
Zahspeed 2 () (Danny O'brien)     Craig Williams  
55.5 49 $11.00 
41220 
Mr Individual 1 () (Leon & Troy Corstens)     Ben Thompson (a2)  
55.0 53.5 $2.20 
586x5 
Plot The Course 4 () (Michael Trotter)     Michael Walker  
55.0 49.5 $9.00 
9x185 
Spirit Or Lager 3 () (Gareth Andrews)     Brian Higgins  
55.0 43.5  
10 53215 
Riyadh 8 () (Peter Healey)     Jye Mc Neil (a1.5)  
55.0 45.5  

3 
The Sporting Globe Jra Cup $200,0002040m
GOOD 4 WT:54.0 Type:OPEN Group 3 API:16.36 I don't like these 2 horses much so will watch7:30 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
14x27 
Real Love 5 () (Darren Weir)     Brad Rawiller  
58.0 60.5 $2.50 
x9845 
Magnapal 8 () (Terry & Karina O'sullivan)     Luke Currie  
57.0 56 $12.00 
51590 
Maurus 11 () (Robert Smerdon)     Craig Williams  
57.0 45  
7x560 
Taiyoo 1 () (Darren Weir)     Mark Zahra  
56.5 48  
148x0 
Arab Dawn 10 () (John O'shea)     Ben Melham  
56.0 46  
30x59 
Observational 2 () (Robert Hickmott)     Damien Oliver  
55.0 55.5 $18.00 
10x26 
Tom Melbourne 7 () (Lee & Anthony Freedman)     Dwayne Dunn  
55.0 60 $2.80 
42516 
Bold Sniper 9 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Corey Parish  
54.5 51  
15x85 
Nevis 6 () (Robert Hickmott)     Katelyn Mallyon  
54.0 51  
10 3x486 
Go Dreaming 3 () (Grant Kluske)     Dean Yendall  
54.0 49  
11 10x79 
Tarquin 4 () (John O'shea)     Michael Dee  
54.0 49  

4 
Inglis 55 Second Chall Ht-Bm90 $55,000955m
GOOD 4 WT:55.0 Type:BM90 API:9.82 My record in these 955 races is poor. Good luck8:00 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
3070x 
It Is Written 9 () (Robbie Griffiths)     Ben Thompson (a2)  
61.5 48 $10.00 
3524x 
Grane 6 () (Robbie Griffiths)     Jye Mc Neil (a1.5)  
61.0 48 $10.00 
3087x 
Tristram's Sun 7 () (Robbie Laing)     Dylan Dunn (a2)  
59.0 41.5  
11192 
Gun Case 3 () (Darren Weir)     Ben Allen (a2)  
57.0 51 $4.20 
8627x 
Gallant Harmony 5 () (John Sadler)     Craig Williams  
56.5 40  
0860x 
General Jackson 1 () (P G Carey)     Rhys Mcleod  
56.5 46 $31.00 
x116x 
Estaminet 11 () (Lee & Anthony Freedman)     Daniel Moor  
55.0 50.5 $4.60 
1611x 
Aunty Mo 8 () (Brendan Mccarthy)     Chris Symons  
55.0 49 $7.00 
15025 
Just A Bullet 2 () (Brett Cavanough)     Stephen Baster  
55.0 43  
10 x51x3 
Corsica Lad 10 () (Brett Cavanough)     Luke Currie  
55.0 42.5  
11 30162 
Money Chaser 4 () (B & G James)     Beau Mertens (a3)  
55.0 47.5 $13.00 



5 
Strathmore Comm. Bank Stutt $200,0001600m
GOOD 4 3 WT:SW Type:OPEN Group 2 API:13.73 Very open race in small field. No betting interest8:30 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
28x11 
Detective 5 () (P & P Snowden)     Blake Shinn  
57.0 48 $5.00 
14x72 
Tessera 6 () (John O'shea)     Craig Williams  
57.0 49 $4.00 
40x11 
Hey Doc 2 () (Tony Mc Evoy)     Luke Currie  
57.0 48 $5.00 
12x05 
Pyx Chamber 9 () (John O'shea)     Michael Dee  
57.0 37  
1112 
Manhattan Street 1 () (Ms L Latta)     Jonathan Riddell  
57.0 43.5  
21x11 
Inference 3 () (Michael & Wayne & John Hawkes)     Dwayne Dunn  
57.0 48 $5.00 
5x11 
Mandalay Bay 4 () (Matt Laurie)     Ben Melham  
57.0 40.5  
213 
Kaching 11 () (Ciaron Maher)     Nicholas Hall  
57.0 44.5 $20.00 
61359 
Back To The Bowler 8 () (Stuart Webb)     Mark Zahra  
57.0 32  
10 514 
Land Of Plenty 7 () (Mick Price)     Craig Newitt  
57.0 37  
11 41 
The Rich Fisher 10 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Dylan Dunn  
57.0 32.5  

6 
Zoustar Stocks Stakes $200,0001600m
GOOD 4 4UM Type:OPEN Group 2 API:21.69 Not sure the top weight is value. Wait until market settles9:00 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
40x27 
Rising Romance 4 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Damian Lane  
57.0 57.5 $3.10 
19x10 
Miss Rose De Lago 9 () (Danny O'brien)     Damien Oliver  
57.0 57.5 $3.10 
35x04 
Jessy Belle 7 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Chris Symons  
57.0 48  
71100 
Iggimacool 2 () (Robert Smerdon)     Chris Parnham  
57.0 51.5  
3x316 
Rocket Commander 6 () (Matthew Dale)     Blake Shinn  
57.0 44.5  
x11x7 
Clemency 3 () (Robert Smerdon)     Craig Williams  
57.0 48  
67514 
Kaniana 8 () (Darren Weir)     Brad Rawiller  
57.0 44.5  
19253 
Baby Don't Cry 1 () (P & C Morgan & Widdison)     H Coffey  
57.0 42  
0x105 
Ginali 10 () (Clinton Mcdonald)     Nicholas Hall  
57.0 36  
10 10x51 
Don't Doubt Mamma 5 () (Tony Mc Evoy)     Dwayne Dunn  
56.5 56.5 $3.90 
11 23x20 
C'est Beau La Vie 11 () (Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas)     Luke Nolen  
56.5 47.5  




7 
Charter Keck Cramer Moir Stks $500,0001000m
GOOD 4 3U Type:OPEN Group 1 API:177.73 Not much in the market. 2 from 1 and 7 for mine. No bets but exciting race and one champion9:30 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
1x10x 
Buffering 6 () (Robert Heathcote)     Damian Browne  
58.5 61.5 $5.50 
1311x 
Chautauqua 5 () (Michael & Wayne & John Hawkes)     Dwayne Dunn  
58.5 64.5 $2.25 
x129x 
Lucky Hussler 2 () (Darren Weir)     Brad Rawiller  
58.5 59.5 $16.00 
x68x2 
Ball Of Muscle 3 () (Joseph Pride)     Kerrin Mcevoy  
58.5 56.5  
15x11 
Redzel 1 () (P & P Snowden)     Mark Zahra  
58.5 54  
26x11 
Wild Rain 8 () (Mark Kavanagh)     Stephen Baster  
56.5 59.5 $16.00 
13x13 
Heatherly 7 () (Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra)     Damian Lane  
56.5 60 $11.00 
1156x 
Chloe In Paris 4 () (Ciaron Maher)     Damien Oliver  
56.5 53  
1118x 
Extreme Choice 9 () (Mick Price)     Craig Newitt  
52.0 59.5 $16.00 


8 
William Hill (BM90) $80,0001200m
GOOD 4 WT:55.0 Type:BM90 API:9.23 Good old Maxy Walker would be on Bacchus here10:00 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
x7783 
Rough Justice 16 () (Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra)     Damian Lane  
60.0 52 $13.00 
34797 
Taddei Tondo 7 () (Gerard Moloney)     Patrick Moloney  
59.0 51.5 $17.00 
11411 
Heza Ripper 1 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Dylan Dunn (a2)  
58.5 52.5 $10.00 
10x14 
Sir Bacchus 3 () (Chris Waller)     Craig Williams  
58.0 56 $3.30 
x1110 
Handsome Tycoon 5 () (Jarrod Mclean)     H Coffey  
57.5 51.5 $17.00 
62762 
Magnus Reign 4 () (Darren Weir)     Ben Allen (a2)  
57.5 49.5  
98338 
Sebring Sun 9 () (Darren Weir)     Brad Rawiller  
57.5 53.5 $6.50 
0x420 
Fast Cash 8 () (Wendy Kelly)     Damien Oliver  
57.0 50.5 $31.00 
0x055 
Nicoscene 15 () (Lee & Anthony Freedman)     Craig Newitt  
57.0 41  
10 x5618 
Just Magical 14 () (Lyn-Leonie Tolson & Proctor)     Michael Walker  
56.5 47  
11 1439x 
Real Time 13 () (Robert Smerdon)     Chris Parnham  
56.5 52 $13.00 
12 4210x 
Streetwise Savoire 6 () (Patrick Payne)     Michael Dee (a1.5)  
56.5 39.5  
E13 3609x 
Mandla 2 () (Mick Price)     Beau Mertens (a3)  
56.5 45  
E14 0x000 
Solsay 11 () (Kevin Mccartin)       
56.0 48  
E15 80x00 
Kirani 12 () (P T Hyland)       
55.5 34  
E16 4987x 
Murt The Flirt 10 () (Brendan Mccarthy)     Chris Symons  
55.0 51 $26.00 




Doomben Raceguide - 1 October 2016
Rail: 0.5m Entire Course.    Track: GOOD 4   Sunny (Max: 26)

3 
Deppro (BM75) $60,0002200m
GOOD 4 WT:54.0 Type:BM75 API:3.36 Surely Josh can just steer him around the rails. Looks good overs to me at current $5.50+ Boost1:37 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
x6024 
Emerald City 1 () (David Vandyke)     Joshua Oliver (a3)  
60.0 41.5 $2.60 
44333 
Annaman 8 () (Tony Gollan)     Ms T Harrison  
56.5 38.5 $6.50 
68152 
Scotty Be Gotti 10 () (Stephen Lee)       
56.5 30  
16342 
War Baby 4 () (K Hickmott)     Sairyn Fawke (a3)  
56.5 41 $2.80 
58810 
Rocbolt 7 () (Bevan Laming)     R Fradd  
56.0 35  
66453 
Alakris 5 () (Olivia Cairns)     Justin P Stanley  
55.5 36  
90875 
Rock The Pac 2 () (Lindsay Gough)     Luke Tarrant  
55.0 33  
63376 
Tralee Chorus 6 () (Stewart Mackinnon)       
54.0 36.5  
54752 
Just Keep Giving 9 () (G J Thompson)       
54.0 36  
10 57533 
Mcgill 11 () (Maryann Brosnan)     J Lloyd  
54.0 31.5  
11 22105 
So Hot 3 () (Ethan Ensby)     Jason Taylor  
54.0 29.5  



Randwick Raceguide - 1 October 2016
Rail: Out 3m Entire Circuit.    Track: SOFT 6   Partly Cloudy Wind (Max: 21)

5 
The Star Roman Consul $300,0001200m
GOOD 4 3 WT:SW Type:OPEN Group 2 API:118.37 Looks thin -  use boost to get $1.80 Astern2:40 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
01x11 
Astern 7 () (John O'shea)     James Mcdonald  
56.5 60.5 $1.55 
121x4 
Capitalist 3 () (P & P Snowden)     Blake Shinn  
56.5 58 $3.50 
11x47 
El Divino 2 () (G Waterhouse & A Bott)     Tim Clark  
56.5 50  
111 
Russian Revolution 8 () (P & P Snowden)     Kerrin Mcevoy  
56.5 44.5  
6x1x1 
Guard Of Honour 4 () (Kris Lees)     Hugh Bowman  
56.5 49  
30x60 
Nikitas 5 () (Chris Waller)     Tommy Berry  
56.5 48  
211x2 
Flash Fibian 6 () (Paul Murray)     Tye Angland  
56.5 45  
33x69 
Mount Panorama 1 () (Gary Moore)     Jason Collett  
56.5 42.5  


7 
Tab Epsom Hcp $1,000,0001600m
SOFT 6 3U WT:48.0 Type:OPEN Group 1 API:55.52 No bet race. Fabrizio and Mac lead off moderate pace4:00 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
2x451 
Palentino 9 () (Darren Weir)tough here with 57     Mark Zahra  
57.0 65.5 $9.00 
22x12 
Hauraki 10 () (John O'shea)not keen at odds     James Mcdonald  
56.0 64.5 $11.00 
7x222 
Le Romain 3 () (Kris Lees)might get shuffled back     Hugh Bowman  
55.5 62.5 $21.00 
23x56 
Happy Clapper 1 () (Patrick Webster)bad draw for him     Brenton Avdulla  
55.0 64 $13.00 
261x7 
Mighty Lucky 12 () (Fred Cowell)too old     Chris O'brien  
54.5 61.5 $31.00 
49x23 
Dibayani 11 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)frustrating horse     Damian Lane  
54.0 61 $41.00 
05x61 
Sons Of John 13 () (Jason Attard)well weighted, wide okay     Glen Boss  
53.0 64.5 $11.00 
110x1 
Mackintosh 2 () (Chris Waller)not keen 2nd up or draw     Tommy Berry  
52.0 65 $10.00 
62511 
Mccreery 4 () (Chris Waller)class a concern     Kerrin Mcevoy  
51.5 64.5 $11.00 
10 2x416 
Heavens Above 8 () (T R Martin)don't mind the mare here and draw     Corey Brown  
51.0 64.5 $11.00 
11 49x54 
Vanbrugh 7 () (Chris Waller)No     Craig Newitt  
51.0 60.5 $61.00 
12 3x522 
Torgersen 5 () (Chris Waller)No     Kathy O'hara  
50.0 62.5 $21.00 
13 6x141 
Fabrizio 6 () (G Waterhouse & A Bott)Johan???     Johan Victoire  
50.0 65 $10.00 

8 
Mcgrath Agents Metropolitan $750,0002400m
SOFT 6 3U WT:51.0 Type:OPEN Group 1 API:27.21 No bet race. Value in the 8 and 2 or Lay the 12. Junoob might press on and put some pace into the race?4:40 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
4x652 
Who Shot Thebarman 8 () (Chris Waller)too old     Hugh Bowman  
57.0 60 $26.00 
97x33 
Storm The Stars 4 () (Chris Waller)well suited looks value     Brenton Avdulla  
55.5 64 $6.00 
3x726 
Grand Marshal 1 () (Chris Waller)could improve quickly     Craig Williams  
54.5 61 $16.00 
6x534 
Magic Hurricane 3 () (John O'shea)Looks a key chance     James Mcdonald  
54.5 62.5 $9.50 
322x2 
Sir John Hawkwood 6 () (John P Thompson)too old     B Spriggs  
54.0 62.5 $9.50 
23532 
Junoob 10 () (Chris Waller)too old     Craig Newitt  
53.5 58.5  
x8821 
Sacred Master 12 () (Chris Waller)not keen on draw     Tommy Berry  
53.0 64 $6.00 
61531 
Allergic 2 () (John O'shea)great chance     Michael Dee  
51.5 64.5 $5.50 
76414 
Sense Of Occasion 13 () (Kris Lees)draw a concern     Corey Brown  
51.0 60 $26.00 
10 q1665 
Amexed 11 () (Tony Gollan)No     Johan Victoire  
51.0 53.5  
11 69x22 
Dee I Cee 7 () (G Waterhouse & A Bott)No     Kerrin Mcevoy  
51.0 58.5  
12 51111 
Antonio Giuseppe 5 () (Chris Waller)Poor value here - lay?     Glen Boss  
51.0 61 $16.00 
13 50690 
Quartermaster 9 () (Paul Perry)No     Kathy O'hara  
51.0 57  


9 
Santos Coffee Premiere Stakes $300,0001200m
GOOD 4 3U Type:OPEN Group 2 API:57.62 Might have a small spec on the 14 25/75%. Really interesting race with good strong gallop. English and Under The Louvre down the outside late but might be a split to upset - a Danish Twist perhaps? Good Luck!5:20 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
21x24 
Under The Louvre 1 () (Robert Smerdon)     Dwayne Dunn  
58.5 59 $6.00 
x154x 
Our Boy Malachi 11 () (Michael & Wayne & John Hawkes)     Christian Reith  
58.5 56.5 $12.00 
4x236 
Rebel Dane 12 () (Gary Portelli)     Jason Collett  
58.5 51  
120x1 
Takedown 2 () (Gary Moore)     Blake Shinn  
58.5 58 $7.50 
2832x 
Amovatio 14 () (Chris Waller)     Craig Williams  
58.5 46.5  
07x83 
Famous Seamus 7 () (Noel Mayfield-Smith)     Jay Ford  
58.5 55 $26.00 
x377x 
Good Project 3 () (Chris Waller)     Hugh Bowman  
58.5 56.5 $12.00 
x7187 
Smart Volatility 6 () (J G Sargent)     Tye Angland  
58.5 49  
70x58 
Boss Lane 8 () (R J Quinton)     Kathy O'hara  
58.5 51.5  
10 1391x 
Howmuchdoyouloveme 5 () (Con Karakatsanis)     Ms S Clenton  
58.5 48  
11 x10x3 
Kaepernick 4 () (Michael & Wayne & John Hawkes)     Corey Brown  
58.5 57 $10.00 
12 11x13 
Southern Legend 13 () (L J Bridge)     Tim Clark  
58.5 57.5 $9.00 
13 631x5 
English 10 () (G Waterhouse & A Bott)     Tommy Berry  
56.5 59 $6.00 
14 1118x 
Danish Twist 9 () (Kris Lees)     James Mcdonald  
56.5 57 $10.00 
15 111 
Russian Revolution - () (P & P Snowden)       
53.0 48  


Caulfield Raceguide - 1 October 2016
Rail: Out 13m Entire Circuit.    Track: GOOD 4   Mostly Cloudy (Max: 18)

8 
Ladbrokes Up For Chall. (BM84) $40,0001440m
GOOD 4 WT:54.0 Type:BM84 API:12.4 Hard to find much value here in a very open race. Lucky Paddy is $34 on Ladbrokes Boost and maybe the 4 later if drifts4:20 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
1314x 
Lucky Paddy 2 () (Darren Weir)     Ben Allen (a2)  
60.5 47.5 $15.00 
5948x 
Sovereign Nation 1 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Dylan Dunn (a2)  
60.0 50 $6.50 
60x67 
Inspector 9 () (Peter J White)     Ben Thompson (a2)  
59.5 41  
27x43 
Miss Gunpowder 8 () (Phillip Stokes)     Regan Bayliss (a1.5)  
58.5 52.5 $3.80 
0640x 
Master Reset 11 () (Matt Laurie)     Luke Currie  
58.0 40  
1213x 
Cool Chap 13 () (Lee & Anthony Freedman)     Daniel Stackhouse  
57.0 46 $31.00 
315x6 
Amarela 3 () (Nigel Blackiston)     Chris Parnham  
56.0 48 $12.00 
62384 
Caprese 7 () (Leon & Troy Corstens)     Stephen Baster  
55.5 48.5 $11.00 
63572 
Manhattan Blues 6 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Michael Walker  
55.5 49 $9.00 
10 0x060 
Anaphora 10 () (Tony Noonan)     Ben Melham  
55.0 46.5 $26.00 
11 x71x5 
Shillelagh 12 () (S & J Autridge & Richards)     Damien Oliver  
54.0 47.5 $15.00 
12 3345x 
Hardern 4 () (David Brideoake)     Ryan Maloney  
54.0 45.5 $41.00 
E13 566x2 
Mail It In 5 () (Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas)     Patrick Moloney  
54.0 47.5 $15.00 



Flemington Raceguide - 2 October 2016
Rail: Out 9m Entire Circuit. (Pent: 4.88).    Track: GOOD 4   

4 
Gilgai Stakes $200,0001200m
GOOD 4 3U Type:OPEN Group 2 API:45.86 Very open affair. Maybe Stratum Star at the value if pushed to a bet1:00 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
21x24 
Under The Louvre 7 () (Robert Smerdon)     Dwayne Dunn  
57.0 60.5 $5.50 
1539x 
The Quarterback 3 () (Robbie Griffiths)     Matthew Allen  
57.0 57.5 $13.00 
6033x 
Stratum Star 5 () (Darren Weir)     Craig Williams  
57.0 60 $6.00 
115x1 
Faatinah 2 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Michael Walker  
57.0 60 $6.00 
45x65 
Generalife 6 () (John O'shea)     James Mcdonald  
56.0 58 $11.00 
6x4x6 
Durendal 1 () (Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra)     Damian Lane  
56.0 58.5 $9.50 
11x63 
We've Got This 4 () (Greg Eurell)     Damien Oliver  
55.0 58.5 $9.50 
0330x 
Spy Decoder 8 () (Anthony Cummings)     Brenton Avdulla  
55.0 45.5  
3x313 
Saint Valorem 9 () (Cameron Templeton)     Brian Higgins  
55.0 47  

6 
Tab Edward Manifold Stakes $200,0001600m
GOOD 4 3F WT:SW Type:OPEN Group 2 API:6.29 Top weight is double figure odds and don't mind the 2 at close to the same2:15 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
14x79 
Chipanda 14 () (John O'shea)     James Mcdonald  
55.5 45 $3.20 
811 
Exocet 10 () (Lee & Anthony Freedman)     Dwayne Dunn  
55.5 44.5 $3.60 
x4x10 
Serenely Discreet 15 () (Phillip Stokes)     Luke Nolen  
55.5 42 $8.00 
33x52 
Smart As You Think 8 () (John Mcardle)     Daniel Stackhouse  
55.5 40.5 $16.00 
32x21 
Eleonora 2 () (Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman)     Damien Oliver  
55.5 41 $13.00 
13x51 
Bella Sorellastra 18 () (P & C Morgan & Widdison)     Stephen Baster  
55.5 33  
x1x28 
Peeking Duck 13 () (Trent Pennuto)     Jye Mc Neil  
55.5 40 $21.00 
4x212 
Gogo Grace 9 () (Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas)     Kerrin Mcevoy  
55.5 38  
1483 
Whyouask 1 () (Matt Laurie)     Ben Melham  
55.5 35.5  
10 321 
Waterloo Sunset 17 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Regan Bayliss  
55.5 30  
11 x9547 
Fromparis Withlove 16 () (Leon & Troy Corstens)     Ben Thompson  
55.5 34.5  
12 3961 
Another Bullseye 5 () (Danny O'brien)     Hugh Bowman  
55.5 35.5  
13 361 
Bettyrae Ruby 12 () (Tim Hughes)     Chris Symons  
55.5 33.5  
14 631 
Classic Diva 3 () (Robbie Griffiths)     Craig Williams  
55.5 37  
15 3x10 
Sognani 7 () (Michael Moroney)     Patrick Moloney  
55.5 30.5  
16 45339 
Vainglorious 4 () (Steve Richards)     Nicholas Hall  
55.5 32  
E17 42 
Von Richter 19 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Damian Lane  
55.5 31.5  
E18 
Ceylon 11 () (Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young)     Mark Zahra  
55.5 31.5  
E19 60 
Kamili 6 () (Nick Ryan)     Rhys Mcleod  
55.5 29.5  





7 
Yellowglen Turnbull Stakes $500,0002000m
GOOD 4 4U Type:OPEN Group 1 API:87.27 Hartnell at around $2.50 is a possible value bet2:55 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
10x45 
Preferment 5 () (Chris Waller)     Hugh Bowman  
59.0 60.5 $15.00 
4x808 
Tarzino 8 () (Mick Price)     Craig Newitt  
58.0 55.5  
775x8 
Happy Trails 6 () (Paul Beshara)     Ben Melham  
57.5 59  
5x211 
Hartnell 4 () (John O'shea)     James Mcdonald  
57.5 65.5 $2.10 
212x6 
The United States 2 () (Robert Hickmott)     Damien Oliver  
57.5 61 $10.00 
501x5 
Our Ivanhowe 1 () (Lee & Anthony Freedman)     Kerrin Mcevoy  
57.5 56  
5x934 
Set Square 12 () (Ciaron Maher)     Luke Nolen  
55.5 52  
13x02 
Tally 9 () (John O'shea)     Brenton Avdulla  
55.5 58  
4x471 
Jameka 7 () (Ciaron Maher)     Nicholas Hall  
54.5 62 $6.00 
10 21x09 
Sofia Rosa 10 () (Stephen Marsh)     Ms D S Johnson  
54.5 55  
11 33x86 
De Little Engine 3 () (Danny O'brien)     Damian Lane  
54.5 50  
12 23x50 
Second Bullet 13 () (Danny O'brien)       
54.5 50.5  
13 14x41 
Raw Impulse 11 () (Darren Weir)     Craig Williams  
54.5 61 $10.00 

8 
Blazer Stakes $200,0001400m
GOOD 4 4UM Type:OPEN Group 2 API:14.393:35 pm

TABFF
HORSE BP (DISPLAYBP) (TRAINER)JOCKEY  
WTFRDiv
27x43 
Miss Gunpowder 5 () (Phillip Stokes)     Dom Tourneur  
58.0 49 $15.00 
34x16 
Catch A Fire 18 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Damian Lane  
58.0 48 $26.00 
71100 
Iggimacool 9 () (Robert Smerdon)     Dwayne Dunn  
57.0 49.5 $12.00 
x380x 
Coronation Shallan 11 () (Brett Scott)     Daniel Stackhouse  
57.0 45  
11x50 
Antelucan 19 () (John O'shea)     James Mcdonald  
57.0 50 $10.00 
33316 
Vibrant Rouge 10 () (Michael Kent)     Luke Nolen  
56.0 46  
35x04 
Jessy Belle 17 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Chris Symons  
55.0 48 $26.00 
804x2 
Every Faith 6 () (Robert Smerdon)     Ryan Maloney  
55.0 48.5 $20.00 
372x5 
Metaphorical 4 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Luke Currie  
55.0 45.5  
10 282x3 
Manageress 7 () (Cindy Alderson)     Chris Parnham  
55.0 50.5 $8.50 
11 21388 
Telopea 3 () (Darren Weir)     Damien Oliver  
55.0 50 $10.00 
12 0x672 
French Emotion 16 () (Chris Waller)     Ben Melham  
55.0 52.5 $5.00 
13 0x060 
Anaphora 13 () (Tony Noonan)     Brenton Avdulla  
55.0 43  
14 4x759 
Rockolicious 2 () (Darren Weir)     Craig Williams  
55.0 48 $26.00 
15 x11x7 
Clemency 1 () (Robert Smerdon)     Nicholas Hall  
55.0 49 $15.00 
16 47625 
Niminypiminy 14 () (Russell Cameron)     Kerrin Mcevoy  
55.0 43.5  
E17 11444 
Majestic Lass 12 () (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig)     Michael Walker  
55.0 45  
E18 3x12x 
Euro Angel 15 () (Michael & Wayne & John Hawkes)     Dwayne Dunn  
55.0 42  
E19 50x72 
Pure Pride 8 () (Murray Johnson)     Patrick Moloney  
55.0 39.5  



CAULFIELD CUP

There is much more historical data here and due in part to the big fields increasing the reliability of figures since around 2005, Be aware that there was some strange bubble of activity with mares in the early 2000s so some of that form has now gone out the window, along with some trainers and vets! The older horse can certainly win this event but there is certainly trend enough to focus your bets around those males <8yo. The 4,5 and 6yo horses all strike at about 10-12 % far above the 7yo+ horses. There is also a trend toward collapsing weight scales, so the horses higher in the weights prove better in strike rate and value, especially those >56Kg and under SP of $17.
The 2 male horses that meet these criteria are Highland Reel and Order of St George. The female horse who could buck the trend away from the home track horse disaster (0/23) is Jameka. She has the ratings to win and is the right age but may represent poor value these days? Best value barriers are 3 to 15






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