New memberships will be offered from Sept 1st 2016
Contact email@example.com to be added
Payment can be made via direct deposit (email us for details) or via :
www.paypal.com.au using the payment email (firstname.lastname@example.org)
1. $50/month (refunded if no profit for month)
2. $125 covering Sept/Oct/Nov (no refund)
3. Annual fee $500 (no refund)
Long term profits (return on investment flat stake win only)as at Aug 2016:
Metro Ace 7% (since 2005)
Rural Ace 24%
Rural Value bet 23%
THE REAL TASK OF THE PUNTER
I must say I get really sick of all these punting shows on RSN, Racing & Sports, Sky, Racing.com etc all trying to find the "winner" of the race in hand. Finding the winner is a pointless exercise if you are taking a price that means you are going to lose big time over time.
Can all you so called "tipsters" please provide a real punting show that identifies the 3 biggest value horses at current fixed odds in the main events. Here is a sample from Tajodds.com Memsie stakes as per our assessment below:
1st Biggest Value horse is Palentino at $9.00 rated $3.50
2nd Biggest Value horse is Mahuta at $8.00 rated $3.90
3rd Biggest Value runner is Sofia Rosa at $21.00 rated $11.00
4th Biggest Value runner is Tarzino at $18, rated $14.00
The % amount any given horse is OVER our rated price expresses the best value, not who we might think will win the race.
The problem is most media tipsters have no idea about what might be a value price or how to assess this. People pay BIG $$$ for services that tell them speed, trial times, race sectionals, tips etc etc but give no indication of the right price to take. What a complete waste of time!
The best jockeys, like McDonald, Bowman etc, often have the worst return on investment (ROI%). The best barriers often have a poorer ROI%. The best trainers have no greater profit margin. Imagine if you were like most punters and looked for in-form horses, drawn well, map well in speed, are well weighted on hcp, top jockey and trainer. You would lose more than most punters as the ROI% is shocking at around -55%. The strike rate is good (well done, you picked some winners!), but the avg win price ensures a massive loss. Get the point?
There are some variables that are specific to Group races on our calendar that appear to give us value. These factors should be used to adjust your value prices. Give a bonus for the following:
Cox Plate: Male horse, 3 runs this prep, has won this prep
Caulfield Cup: <8yo, barrier 3 to 15, >56Kg, <5 runs this prep, jockey same as last start and >10% strike rate
Melbourne Cup: <7yo male, TAB No 1 to 6, barrier 3 to 14, 3 to 6 runs this prep, jock >14%
In these high pool races, the high % jocks can be value unlike the general Saturday or mid week racing. These variables increase both win % and ROI% (=Value)