Tajodds exists to build better communities.
Punting teaches us a lot over time. It can be a great educator. It can also destroy lives of self and family. As we mature we learn that even the very one person who we thought would never let us down will at some stage. We have our hearts broken more than once. We enjoy great wins and suffer big losses. It gets harder when we break hearts of those around us. You will fight with your best friend. You will blame new loves for what old loves did. You will blame new loves for what you hate about yourself. You will cry because time is going too fast, and eventually you will also lose people you love.
So....take too many pictures, laugh out loud, love like you've never been hurt.
Don't be afraid that your life will end. Be afraid it has never started. Be brave. Don't be fooled that 'punting' bad. Punting can be a pathway to freedom and creativity or one to destruction. Get control.
LESSON 1 THE COMPETENCE VERSUS DEVIANCE HYPOTHESIS
Well, it's not actually a hypothesis. I've been around long enough now to know this is a reality:
"The more competencies you have as an individual, the more deviance in you will be tolerated by society"
I could talk for hours to you about this but it would be wasted I can see. Essentially it means you should concentrate your life around the skills and attributes that YOU have, that not EVERYBODY has, but is NEEDED and WANTED by OTHERS (i.e. Competence). If you are good at maths, focus on that; if you are good at predicting events, go with that; if you are good at art or running or music, go with that and develop the skill further. DONT focus on your DEVIANCE (what you fail to do well, or can't do, or things that bring you negative attention).
A good punter in life will invariably utilize the talents he or she possesses. If you are not good with basic stats then don't try using the Don Scott ratings method. Find an approach that suits your competence (skills or attributes that you have, that not everybody has, but is wanted and needed by others).
Shouldn't I practice things I'm not good at??
NO! Not if you are going to then neglect your competence. It makes no sense. The world NEEDS you and your COMPETENCE. it doesn't want you focusing on what your not good at!
So.....if I'm good at maths at school but no good at English I should focus on Maths???
Now you're getting it!! The more competence you can show the more deviance will be tolerated in you by society in general. Competence gives you access to the community, it gives you contacts and it gives you QUALITY OF LIFE (regardless of your deviance)
What do you mean "deviance"??
DEVIANCE is anything that brings you negative attention. It might be getting caught picking your nose, it might be some strange behaviour, your appearance or your inability to complete basic life tasks. Without competence, deviance can be devastating, but WITH competence, deviance can be almost irrelevant.
What has this stuff got to do with me making money??
Geez - you need to go back and read Lesson One again! HOWEVER, please focus your punting approaches around your competence as an individual. If you think you are good at mystical predicting, then focus your strategies around 'feel' and whatever you use to predict the future. If you are strong at stats USE that competence. If you can read animal behaviour USE that skill. If you can READ trainers body behaviour USE that competence (not that they are good judges). Punting is about getting an edge in value via an edge in approach, not following the crowd.
PLEASE REMEMBER IN EVERYTHING YOU DO AND WHEN EDUCATING YOUR CHILDREN: FOCUS ON YOUR COMPETENCE..WHAT YOU DO WELL...THEN DO IT BETTER AND BETTER....YOU HAVE A RESPONSIBILITY TO YOUR COMMUNITY TO USE THAT SKILL OR ATTRIBUTE. DON'T WASTE YOUR TIME FOCUSING ON DEVIANCE
Everyone has a talent. What is rare is the courage to follow the talent to the dark place where it leads
LESSON 2 SLOWING DOWN!
This is REALLY tough in todays world, but if you can just practice it the world of punting is yours. I wont go into the details of why as I'm not sure you've grasped lessons 1 & 2 yet so just follow me blindly for now. I want you to do this:
1. Find a task you do either every day or a few times a week and slow it down 5 fold
2. Ok - you go and get the paper every Sunday morning and the walk takes you 20 mins. I want you to do it next Sunday and take the same route but take 100 mins! It might be your walk to work which takes 30 mins....do it but take 150 mins
3. Do this 5 fold trick twice a week for 3 months (less than 1% of people will do it so i don't hold much hope)
4. When taking your stroll 5 times slower use your time to check the guttering, the houses, the smells, the leaves on the ground, the insects. Where are the ants nests? Are they active? Is it going to rain? What birds are about? Why are Mrs Smiths blinds still closed? Say hello to old Bart. SLOW.
The best punters in the world are experts at SLOW! It needs practice. Experience in SLOW gives you respect for the world, gives you patience and makes you LESS likely to make impulsive errors. Some other hints on goal setting follow:
A] Choose the mountain (goal) you want to climb: don’t pay attention to what other people say, such as "that one’s more beautiful" or "this one’s easier". You’ll be spending lots of energy and enthusiasm to reach your objective, so you’re the only one responsible and you should be sure of what you’re doing.
B] Know how to get close to it: mountains are often seen from far off – beautiful, interesting, full of challenges. But what happens when we try to draw closer? Roads run all around them, flowers grow between you and your objective, what seemed so clear on the map is tough in real life. So try all the paths and all the tracks until eventually one day you’re standing in front of the top that you yearn to reach.
C] Learn from someone who has already been up there: no matter how unique you feel, there is always someone who has had the same dream before you and ended up leaving marks that can make your journey easier; places to hang the rope, trails, broken branches to make the walking easier. The climb is yours, so is the responsibility, but don’t forget that the experience of others can help a lot. Just because they have been there does NOT make them better than you.
D] When seen up close, dangers are controllable: when you begin to climb the mountain of your dreams, pay attention to the surroundings. There are cliffs, of course. There are almost imperceptible cracks in the mountain rock. There are stones so polished by storms that they have become as slippery as ice. But if you know where you are placing each footstep, you will notice the traps and how to get around them. Practice being SLOW again!
E] The landscape changes, so enjoy it: of course, you have to have an objective in mind – to reach the top. But as you are going up, more things can be seen, and it’s no bother to stop now and again and enjoy the panorama around you. At every meter conquered, you can see a little further, so use this to discover things that you still had not noticed.
F] Respect your body: you can only climb a mountain if you give your body the attention it deserves. You have all the time that life grants you, as long as you walk without demanding what can’t be granted. If you go too fast you will grow tired and give up half way there. Enjoy the scenery, take delight in the cool spring water and the fruit that nature generously offers you, but keep on walking.....slowly.
G] Respect your soul: don’t keep repeating "I’m going to make it". Your soul already knows that, what it needs is to use the long journey to be able to grow, stretch along the horizon, touch the sky. An obsession does not help you at all to reach your objective, and even ends up taking the pleasure out of the climb (see Gamblers Help). But pay attention: also, don’t keep saying "it’s harder than I thought", because that will make you lose your inner strength.
H] Be prepared to climb one kilometer more: the way up to the top of the mountain is always longer than you think. Don’t fool yourself, the moment will arrive when what seemed so near is still very far. But since you were prepared to go beyond, this is not really a problem.
I] Be happy when you reach the top: cry, clap your hands, shout to the four winds that you did it, let the wind - (the wind is always blowing up there so be bloody careful!)- purify your mind, refresh your tired and sweaty feet, open your eyes, clean the dust from your heart. It feels so good, what was just a dream before, a distant vision, is now part of your life, you did it!
J] Make a promise: now that you have discovered a force that you were not even aware of, tell yourself that from now on you will use this force for the rest of your days. Preferably, also promise to discover another mountain, and set off on another adventure.
PRACTICE GOING SLOW!!! Map out 4 square metres of your backyard. Sit down for 30 mins and study it in minute detail. Smell it, scratch it, dig it up a bit, stare at it, write about it, taste the fucking thing! Work around your garden til you know why and how it works. Its a different perspective that gets you value!
Lesson 3: Pursuers of the Possible V Predictors of the Inevitable
"Im telling you - it doesn't matter what we do it will happen again anyway. " .....does this ring a bell? This is a Predictor of the Inevitable speaking. They state the bleeding obvious, engender apathy, they say "we told you so", use no energy in their life if they can help it, and offer no new solutions. "Been there, done that" sort of people.
To get true value in your punting and in life generally, you need to surround yourself with Pursuers of the Possible and avoid Predictors of the Inevitable. Even though the record for telling the future is not as good as predictors, it is better to test your strength and be wrong than believe in weakness and be right. Anyone that has lived knows the Predictors in their lives. Most of us at some stage become Predictors of the Inevitable when we age so if you are 40+ Be warned! . Become aware of when you slip into this mode and seek to become a Pursuer. Surround yourself with Pursuers whilst you still actively listen to the Predictors. Within a week you will inwardly smile at the Predictors statements and move forward with ease.
LESSON 4 MISTAKES & PROFIT
Mistakes are the portals of discovery.
James Joyce - Irish author (1882 - 1941)
When everybody thinks alike, Everyone is likely to be wrong
Losers think of selecting the winner and beating a race. Professionals think of betting for value and beating the races
Never succumb to anyone who just wants to let you know what you are doing will never work as they are Predictors of the Inevitable
Don’t fall foul of the favourite/longshot bias i.e. Horses with short odds (i.e., favorites) tend to win even more frequently than indicated by the final market odds, while horses with long odds (i.e., longshots) win less. So, don’t underestimate the chances of preferred contenders and overestimate the changes of marginal contenders. STOP looking for the big outsider and focus on VALUE
The best handicapping literature in the world are your own records....keep track and don't wank yourself!
The crowd is smart … so let them do the handicapping and analyse them...then look for the opportunity
The difference between success and failure is small. Therefore you need to continually work to maintain your edge and continually work to improve your performance.
Successful punters think in terms of chances., not fancies and certainties. They try to assess the true chance of a horse in a race and bet on the basis of their evaluations.
Value is all-important – not winners. The secret is not getting more heads than tails, its winning more when a coin comes up heads than you lose when it’s tails
Common sense dictates that you cannot outsmart the public if you are handicapping with the same information and methods as the public. OFTEN THE HARDER YOU WORK, THE MORE FACTORS YOU EMPLOY, THE LESS PROFIT YOU MAKE. BE WARNED.
The successful punter never allows items of news, "whispers" or thoughts of others override his train of thought when assessing a race’s runners for betting purposes
DON"T follow the market movers - following the herd is fine until they all run off the side of a cliff together.
If you want to make money … big money … do what nobody else is doing
To be a winner, one must know or perceive things which the public must not grasp. If there is no special insight then there will be no special odds, no bargains, no overlays; the more that information is used by the public, the less it pays off at the bookies
To be successful you’ve got to have had some failures in your career - - otherwise you have probably been too conservative
Picking winners is easy. Beating the odds is not. There are thousands of 'tipsters' out there that strike at 50% but still make a loss.
In order to make money betting on sports, you must either have information that is not being used by the betting public, or you must have a superior ability to process the information that is public.
2% of punters make regular annual profits.....60% say they do....most punters are liars
Almost all punters using commercially paid for systems still lose money....be warned! Even with great tipping results and staking methods recommended, human nature takes over and "off goes the punters head"
Lesson 5...Don't Bet!
What?...Isn't this what the site is all about?
This website is about having fun and making money
Yeah...so we bet!
Yes...we bet...BUT...the MOST important lesson and learning is knowing when NOT TO BET and this is most of the time. The Tajodds website avoids the dangerous or risky races where there are toomany unknown factors like horses coming off wet track from, first up or second up form, or where many runners have suffered checks or wide running so it is hard to assess their chances. We also avoid races where we assess too many chances.
Yeah, Yeah...heard it all before! Be selective etc etc etc
You hear but you don't act dimwit. You decide to stick only with the Ace Tip but then you see the Biggest Value Horse making money and you jump ship....then you follow Deano...then a mate who has a maiden in at Geelong. You just don't learn do you?
But you're no fun!
Yes I am ....see...I can smile! Just TRY something and stick with it for once! ...or are you addicted??? If you NEED more action...employ it! Make some rules for selections. Here is an example:
1. Do your own form however you do it...I don't care if it is on names, colours, number patterns ...whatever...but have some ownership
2. Select a few horses you like based ONLY on your assumptions
3. Filter these by using a quality rater (e.g. Tajodds or other reliable ratings system/servicve). If Tajodds doesn't rate them a chance then wipe them
4. Set a price you are prepared to take for your bet or use the Tajodds price
5. Back your horses with 2.5 % of a REAL bank. If you only have $100 that is $2.50 folks! I mean it! Don't pretend coz even the Ace Tip who has increased the bank over 1000% has had a run of outs of 17 in the last year! Be Warned!
6. This point is too tough for you I know. Stick with your rules for 12 months
7. Do it today. Draw up your rules, monitor your bets, set up your separate bank account, avoid the tips even ours! Don't just try...DO IT! If you need action , employ it , but with good rules.
8. DON"T bet if you can't get your price! I know it is annoying when your selection wins and you opted out but this rule is vital. We often rate horses well on top that also become our LAY OF THE DAY because they are far too short in the market. They move from horses to invest on to horses to avoid! NEVER just bet on selections or tips...make sure you set a minimum price you are willing to take.
9. NEVER bet under even money ($2.00)
LESSON 5 - 20 WORDS OF WISDOM
20 Words of Wisdom come from making mistakes and having success and watching and knowing some of the best punters in the land, and some who thought they were and are now broke.
1. DON"T be like a sheep and follow the money. IGNORE the market movers and stick to your decision and facts. 90% of horses that win races drift in the market and you end up with better value.
2. On heavy tracks find the horse with hidden form that is just waiting for such conditions e.g. dam sired by Success Express
3. Horses are herd animals and some just never want to win despite their ability. Losers continue to lose
4. Be wary of horses horses first up. Even the trainers don't really know how they will go fresh against fitter opposition. There is value in some breeds however who have a ROI in the positive
5. Beware of 'systems' that just list rules to follow. These have usually been put together based on history that doesn't repeat (at least whilst you use it!). A 'system' that has won for 5 years previously might lose for the next 10!
6. If you bet for fun only, be prepared to lose your investment and consider it entertainment
7. If you bet for profit you need a business plan, high discipline and sound tools (selection and staking methods)
8. Nearly all punters lose because of poor staking consistency, lack of a bank, and faith in their method during runs of outs. The Rural Ace Tip is the best selection tip in Australia at 24% profit long term, but it can have a run of outs like any other (e.g.16 recently) but still averages >23% winners at $6.
9. Use speed maps to find which horses can lead off a moderate pace and give these horses a big bonus when doing your form.
10. Some jockeys actually ride better from a wide draw (e.g. B Rawiller). Give these horses a bonus if drawn wide.
11. Some jockeys love to lead and rate their horses (e.g. Gauci). Use the speed maps to find if their horses can lead off a moderate pace and allocate a big bonus if so.
12. Don't back favourites in Class 1 races if they have just come off a good maiden win. They nearly always represent poor value.
13. Don't bet on horses under $2.00 even if you or Tajodds has rated them shorter. Over many years of Australian racing these horses represent poor betting value.
14. Zabeel 3yo fillies over 1400 are well worth a look, but 5yo+ mares that have Zabeel dams are money makers (if blinker on or > 2000m) 15. Zabeel horses jumping from 1400 to 2000 or further can improve much more than other breeds in general. We often allocate 6kg improvement with success.
16. Weight can stop a train, but it stops classy horses less than average horses. The high class horse has the ability to carry weights more efficiently, so don't get stuck in pure handicapping mode and miss the best horse in the race.
17. Barriers are not as important as trainers and punters think they are. After many years of asessing and checking results, it is the position in running that is important and barrier advantage/disadvantage is related to that position. Horses drawn inside 6 win more but represent less punting value in $ return on investment
18. Never chase your losses, or use suicidal plans where you increase bets until you win. That is the worst staking method of all and causes suicide! NEVER increase bets just because you had a win, unless it is part of your long term plan and based on a % of your bank
19. Don't listen to jockeys or owners as they are the worst judges (narrow lens)
20. Don't risk heavy investment on a horse unless the jockey is very competent (or overlay is massive!)
LESSON 6: THE FAVOUR BANK
This is the hardest lesson of all to learn. Punting is not about money! Money in and of itself has NO VALUE. It is what you can buy or what you receive that may or may not have value, and I don't mean value in dollar terms! A VERY old concept that holds true is that of the FAVOUR BANK.
Did you ever do anyone a FAVOUR? Of course you have! If you think really hard, you will see that you actually gained from theis favour, probably much more than you could ever possibly LOSE from giving the FAVOUR. Our minds are stuck in a false paradigm that when we GIVE we LOSE something, but this is simply not true. When you give a FAVOUR (join LIONS, help a mate, do meals on wheels for the elderly, have a cup of tea with someone lonely) you build your FAVOUR bank.
Let me explain a bit more in a discussion with YOU:
'What is this the Favour Bank?"
'You know. Everyone knows.'
'Possibly, but I still haven't quite grasped what you're saying.'
'It was an American writer who first mentioned it. It's the most powerful bank in the world, and you'll find it in every sphere of life.'
'Yes but I come from a country without a literary tradition and very mixed culture. What favours could I do for anyone?'
'That doesn't matter in the least. Let me give you an example: I know you are an up-and-coming punter in life and that, one day, you'll be very influential. I know this because, like you, I too was once ambitious, independent, honest. I no longer have the energy I once had, but I want to help you because I can't or don't want to grind to a halt just yet. I'm not dreaming about retirement, I'm still dreaming about the fascinating struggle that is life.
I start making deposits in your account - not cash deposits, you understand, but contacts. I introduce you to such and such a person, I arrange certain deals, as long as they're legal. You know that you owe me something, but I never ask you for anything.'
'And then one day...'
'Exactly. One day, I'll ask you for a favour and you could, of course, say "No", but you're conscious of being in my debt. You do what I ask, I continue to help you, and other people see that you're a decent, loyal sort of person and so they too make deposits in your account = always in the form of contacts, because this world is made up of contacts and nothing else. They too will one day ask you for a favour, and you will respect and help the people who have helped you, and, in time, you'll have spread your net worldwide, you'll know everyone you need to know and your influence will keep on growing.'
'I could refuse to do what you ask me to do.'
'You could. The Favour Bank is a risky investment, just like any other bank. You refuse to grant the favour I asked you, in the belief that I helped you because you deserved to be helped, because you're the best and everyone should automatically recognise your talent. Fine, I say thank you very much and ask someone else into whose account I've also made various deposits; but from then on, everyone knows, without me having to say a word, that you are not to be trusted.
You'll grow only half as much as you could have grown, and certainly not as much as you would have liked to. At a certain point, your life will decline, you have got halfway, but not all the way, you are half-happy and half-sad, neither frustrated nor fulfilled. You're neither cold or hot, you're lukewarm, and as an evangelist in some holy book says: "Lukewarm things are not pleasing to the palate."'
The first lesson in becoming a successful punter is about getting VALUE in life. It is a simple philosophy but THE most powerful tool on earth. Build your contacts by doing FAVOURS. Your FAVOURS will automatically lead to a fuller life and your FAVOUR BANK builds rapidly and before you know it this BANK is very influential. You can give parts of this bank away and your bank will just grow, it overflows, it makes you very rich.
You still don't get it do you? Come back and read this a few times. Decide on doing some favours for others who may be in need this next month, then come back and read Lesson One.
LESSON 7 FERTILE FIELDS
Making the field fertile - the Least Restrictive Alternative
The Zen master entrusted the disciple with looking after the rice paddy. In the first year, the disciple watched to make sure that the necessary water was never missing; the rice grew strong and the harvest was good.
In the second year, he had the idea of adding a little fertiliser, the rice grew fast and the harvest was bigger.
In the third year, he used more fertiliser. The harvest was still bigger, but the rice sprouted small and lacklustre.
- If you continue increasing the amount of manure, you will have nothing worth having next year – said the master.
"You strengthen someone when you help a little. But you weaken someone if you help a lot."
Remember, that when punting or investing, discipline is important, but don't be led blindly down the garden path. I can feed you so much manure, but essentially you must place your own experiences to work. Use good information but then put your own creative flair to projects. Create OWNERSHIP as this creates self PRIDE and is MUCH more likely to lead to your success.
LESSON 8 PUNTING IS LIKE A TUBE OF TOOTHPASTE
For some of us our tube of toothpaste is full to the brim. We don't have to squeeze too hard to get the good stuff out. It just oozes! Life is pretty damn easy! But things change over time so be wary!
As time goes by the tube of toothpaste can get very low..bordering on empty. We have to squeeze really hard to get the results. Sometimes we even have to get ultra creative and roll the damn thing up or even get out the pair of scissors and cut the tube to scrape out the remaining quality paste. I've even seen some people who have forgotten to go shopping for a new tube, go out to the rubbish bin, regain their tossed toothpaste tube, scrape off the hairy bits & fluff and get one last squeeze out of the tube!
For those of us that are creative enough or persistent enough to keep squeezing an amazing thing happens: The quality of the toothpaste we extract is exactly the same as the quality we extracted when life was easy and the tube brand new. The ONLY difference is the amount of resources we have put in to get the results.
When you are punting you must be creative and you must put in the resources. If you merely borrow the toothpaste off someone else your resources will surely dry up. When things get low, as they always do, and you do not renew yourself, you will dry up. When things are tough and on a downward spiral you must get even more creative and put in more work to get the results to stay afloat.
Punting, like life, is not a cruise. We cannot just choose to be happy or successful. We have to work hard at those simple things in life.
LESSON 9 WHAT ABOUT 'LUCK'?...... IS THERE SUCH A THING?
You betcha! In the Western world people see luck as a very transient thing, almost esoteric and impossible to comprehend. In many Eastern philosophies 'Luck' is vital to life and is managed carefully and with respect.
Winning at the punt is very much linked to luck but it must be 'managed'. Luck works via what we in the Western world would know as homeostasis. You will not suffer endless 'bad' luck, nor will you enjoy endless 'good' luck. It will tend to balance over time. You can learn to manage 'luck' via giving something (in order to receive). If you are having a run of outs try giving to a charity, or helping a person in need. If you give away something it leaves room for you to receive and can trigger the return of the 'good' run. Some people call this 'Karma' but it has many names and is very real not some form of mystical bullshit :)
Of course, if you are from a paradigm that does not understand life balance (homeostasis) and sees luck as purely random and unfatherable you are unlikely to subscribe to this theory regardless of what I say or thousands of years of philosophy.
Punting & The Gestalt
Punting Variables are a Gestalt - the combination of each 'variable' can make up something more valuable than the sum of these individual factors. Confused? Don't be. The magic of finding value is to find when these factors combine to produce 'special' results that other cannot see happening.
Lets have a look at our recommended 25/75% win place bet on the $101 shot at Flemington READY TO FIGHT.
The 3yo filly had won a Maiden and was coming into a Listed event at Flemington. 95% of punters put a line through her straight away! A Maiden win rated her at 44 but when a young horse rises in class after a win it is very hard to predict future ratings so it pays to keep an open mind to rapid improvement in ratings.
There are literally thousands of variables and opinions about form but to get some of these items to 'click' they need to be combined or form a 'gestalt'. One of these gestalts happens when:
- Track is Flemington
- Distance less than 1650
- Jockey has won on the horse
- Horse won last start
- Has had less than 4 runs but not 1st up
- Last start was Metro
The fact she was 2nd up for Mick Price helped as well!
The thing is none of these combinations work alone. They all need to meet on the day. Moonee Valley would have a completely different set of form variables that might 'click'.
Ready To Fight did only have a 44Kg base rating but when we add the 'gestalt' above she became a real place chance at massive overs $101/$26 and ran third accordingly.
Easy after the event? Not at all. We provide the ratings for all races we assess where there may be a good chance of value, or we suggest 'no bets' in the top banner of each race.
WHAT ABOUT THE GOLDEN SLIPPER?
Vancouver is our top rated horse rating 54Kg and we think he might be value race day given the 18 barrier which we like here. However, the $3 currently offered is hardly inspiring and we would want $4.50 race day to consider a bet.
Exosphere we have also rating almost the same but rated $3.20 and it is J McD that puts this Godolphin Lonnie colt so close. We think he has a length on Tommy Berry is big races and might get a break on the turn. I would entertain a bet at around $5.50.
Our third selection is the Hawkes trained Headwater with Bossypants up. Again he looks value rated only 3.5Kg behind the top 2 colts and worth a bet at around $14 ( I love value and am prepared to wait or leave alone!)
The 4th selection is the Gerald Ryan trained Fireworks. This filly only has a base rating of 45Kg and initially seems a long way off the colts but gets 2Kg being a little girlie and gets a further 3Kg bonus for some 'gestalt' variables clicking in on Saturday. She has started in the last 16 days, draws wide, placed last run, has won this prep, races at home and has won at home. Ryan just also happens to be superb with young fillies requiring some stamina! This puts her on 50Kg and only 3.5 from the top boys priced at $13. With $34 currently on offer she is our strongest bet 25% win and 75% place
Lesson 11: 'The Quaddie' - mathematical commonsense!
- The quaddie is only 4 independent races but the best thing is you only get taxed once by the TAB so you effectively cop around 4% tax on each race or 16% for your quaddie bet = a good start!
- Betting via a quadrella thus makes sense. You lessen the tax you pay prior to the event. Only Betfair punters get the chance at these sort of % plays.
- The rules of punting remain when making selections -VALUE VALUE VALUE. Do NOT include horses in your selections that rare not value. If you don't have a system that works out value for you it makes your chance of long term success VERY low.
- Aim for quaddies where you are highly confident of at least 2 winners and where you see few real chances in all 4 legs. This takes advantage of the mug punter money that WILL go wider in search of big collects. Mathematically you are better off going thin in all 4 legs and having more $ on each combination.
- Have more $ on the more likely winning combos. This is the same as having a $50 bet on an even money horse to return $100 and $10 on a $10 chance to return the same....or are you too lazy to fill out all those cards?
- My formula is as follows where A= my top selection and BCD are my 2nd, 3rd and 4th selections in that leg
- For me to collect 2 of my top selections must win. If 3 or 4 win I get multiple results which rewards me for being accurate.
- I use this approach only when confident of all 4 legs and where there is value. Because I play in the provincial market as well I probably take 20 /per year on average.
- This method takes advantage of tax, value and basic mathematics to ensure your key runners are the focus of your strategy.
LESSON 12 : MULTI BETS, PARLAYS AND ALL UPS
Ever hear the Ex SPURTS in the media say " I Think this one will win but it's too short so take it in a multiple or all-up" It does my head in! Why would you include any horse that is "Too Short" in a multiple with other horses you like at value in the day? Just leave it out!
By including these runners that may be rated to win but are under their true value, you are simply multiplying your chances of long term losses! If you decide to include a $1.85 chance in your multi when you really think it should be $2.00, then you have destroyed all th eother runners value and almost all the long term chance of winning. Your focus is too narrow and lost to purpose.
Multi type bets also do not take advantage of tax. Each part of your multi attracts Tax via the TAB or corporate so effectively you are only have a win bet ( or place bet) as there are no multi pools. You are much better off taking a Daily Double or a Running Double or even a Quaddie/Pick 6 and paying tax on this one unit bet type rather than on each selection.
Essentially, multi bets make little or no sense in a long term punting strategy because you will probably also miss the best odds or at least the ability to adapt near race time e.g. if track worsens or improves rapidly.
LESSON 13: OLD WIVES TALES
RACING RUMOURS AND FALSE THEORIES
It is amazing how the racetrack and the punt bring on a whole range of entirely made up theories on how to win or lose your money. These days we can use statistics to put many of these old wive tales to rest, but some may just have an element of validity. Email firstname.lastname@example.org if you want any investigated!
1 When horses finish a race all locked together it generally means it is poor form.....FALSE! This is an old one from decades ago and an easy analysis of races and a Q factor (Quality) indicates no significant difference in this form pattern and the Quality ratings going forward. 6 very high quality horses can go over the line locked together and that form stacks up as well as any race (but not any better)
2. Top weights in Welters - well, the Welters have been replaced these days but there was a tiny element of validity in the top 3 weighted horses won significantly more than the bottom 3. This however does not help in finding value as these top 3 horses tended to start under their true odds = loss
3 Last start Maiden winners rarely win their next race. TRUE, but then how many horses do win twice in a row! Open handicap horses can win 2 in a row more easily than a Class one horse.
4 Avoid horses back in distance and up in weight FALSE. There is no difference in value long term. You may get less winners, but the return is better, thus equal the effect. Remember, punting is not about winning. It is a multiple of strike rate X value price and return
5 Horses with white feet have more problems. Not sure but can't find evidence of such. The keratin is the same strength and they don't dry out as much so it may be false
6 Find horses that combine various winning maxims to win at the punt. FALSE. The more common maxims you combine e.g. speed ratings, weigh ratings, good barrier, won at distance, top jockey/trainer etc, the more your value is reduced even though your win % is increased
7 Back horses with Blinkers on first time or at least give them a bonus - FALSE. In general terms horses that have blinkers on first time, or have blinkers back on after a period of not running in them, perform poorer than horses that have never raced in blinkers. Some trainers can perform very well using blinkers on certain breeds e.g. zabeel dam mares, but as a general rule they don't help us seek either a better strike rate or value. In fact, if we look at Vic Metro results these past 6 months horses with blinkers on next start have a 7% win strike and a loss of 20% of value, whilst horses that have blinkers OFF next start have an 11% strike rate and an amazing 20% profit. Long term this profit drops away but still performs better than those horses with blinkers on next start. Blinkers on and first up have a terrible 4% strike rate and a loss of 60%....AVOID!(unless it is a Waterhouse mare)
8. Avoid horses with bar plates on next start Possible TRUE. I have no data on this one, although I feel confident the strike rate of these horses would be much lower than the average. Bar plates stop the natural hoof movement from spreading. There has been quite a bit of recent media about 'never backing these horses' and this invariably leads to punters risking them to a point they might be value. My approach would be to assess the horse on pure form and back the horse if the price is 30% over your assessed price. I am not convinced we should put a line through these ones yet!
LESSON 13 CONFIRMATION BIAS
Confirmation bias is very real, and basically a very simple concept: as humans, we prefer to stick with our current views rather than changing them.
This can lead us to look at new pieces of evidence or information in a less than objective manner: we often subconsciously place more stock in information that confirms our current thinking, as opposed to that which challenges it.
Where the true meaning or impact of new information is up for interpretation, by default we’ll look at how it can support our current thinking rather than debunk it.
It’s just human nature. In very simple terms, we like to think we’re right!
When you consider that the vast majority of our punting is done based on our opinion (or that of others), the dangers of confirmation bias to the hip-pocket become very obvious.
For example, ever done the form and thought you’d found something based on a race you remember? Horse X is running today in the wet, and you remember backing it last campaign in a wet race and having a good win. But what’s one race? We need more evidence than that!
So you have a further look through at it’s form… and you don’t get far, because it’s very last start was a win – also in the wet! That’s all the evidence we need, time to load up on this nag.
If you keep looking through the form, you might see other wet track performances (perhaps even at today’s track, or with today’s jockey) which are very poor. But there’s a good chance you won’t pay as much attention to them, as your thinking is now set and they don’t support YOUR BIASED THINKING. There’s your confirmation bias in action, and it may well be leading you to a poor value bet.
Can you stop it?
Confirmation bias is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to eliminate completely. But there are a few methods you can employ when it comes to your own punting.
Firstly, pay some attention to computer-calculated data. It’s everywhere now AND MUCH MALIGNED, and although not many betting approaches rely on it entirely, they’ll almost certainly take it into account in some direct or indirect manner. Computers don’t have emotions and process data objectively: they can break down a larger amount of results into a simple number, rather than placing too much emphasis on any individual example.
Secondly, if you’re doing your own punting, try to develop a range of sources of information which you trust, and take them all into account (to a point). This is more likely to open your thinking to possibly conflicting points of view, particularly if you trust both sources.
Successful punters are a diverse lot, but almost all of them are very objective types. If you’re going to be successful too, it’s a trait you’re going to have to develop.
LESSON 14 RUNS OF OUTS AND YOUR BANK - think about it. We have a strike rate of about 25% so over 1000 bets we are likely to have up 24 bets in a row lose! Make sure you bet about 5% of your bank, no more