DON'T FORGET....THE FAVOUR BANK!!

Tajopdds rated 4 horses a chance in the 2010 Golden Slipper. You will see in the Div column the price Tajodds assessed each horse at a 90% market (that is a market with 10% in YOUR favour). We rated Crystal Lily to win and considered she was value at $3.40. She won at twice those odds. We rated Decision Time $6.00 and he started $31 and massive overs running second. More Strawberries was rated short at $4.00 and started double figure odds. They were all great value on the day. The trifecta paid $1391. Not all races pan out so well, but it does explain how we rate a price. If you can't get that price race day don't back the horse (unless you are betting exotics such as Trifectas or Pick 4s or Quaddies). 

 

7

2010 Aami Golden Slipper 1200m  8 API:63.27 4:05 pm QUIN $88.00 EXACTA $164  TRIF $1391

TAB	FF	HORSE BP (TRAINER) JOCKEY	WT	FR	Div
1	021	Brightexpectations 4 (Ms G Waterhouse)  Nash Rawiller	56.5	53.5
2	113	Hinchinbrook 5 (Gerald Ryan)  Darren Beadman	56.5	44
3	112	Decision Time 2 (Clarry Conners) BVR2ND  Craig Williams	56.5	58.5	$6.00
4	136	Beneteau 6 (Paul Messara)  Michael Rodd	56.5	49
5	3	Carved In Stone 10 (Tim Martin)  Tye Angland	56.5	45.5
6	1x1	Military Rose 8 (Gillian Heinrich)  Stathi Katsidis	54.5	59.5	$3.45
7	111	Chance Bye 3 (Michael Tubman)  Kathy O'Hara	54.5	47.5
8	611	Crystal Lily 1 (Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra)  1ST  Brett Prebble	54.5	59.5	$3.40
9	221	Shaaheq 15 (David Hayes)  Steve Arnold	54.5	42.5
10	x13	Solar Charged 13 (John O'Shea)  Hugh Bowman	54.5	53.5
11	x25	Lohan 7 (Tim Martin)  Jay Ford	54.5	44.5
12	136	Georgette Silk 9 (Clarry Conners)  Glen Boss	54.5	46.5
13	x12	Obsequious 12 (Peter Snowden)  Kerrin Mc Evoy	54.5	46.5
14	125	Elimbari 11 (Kris Lees)  Glyn Schofield	54.5	43.5
15	22	More Strawberries 14 (Ms G Waterhouse)  3RD  Damien Oliver	54.5	59	$4.00

How to find out the "base rating" of a horse

The 'base' rating is the horses best run this preparation, or if first up, their best rating last preparation. A rating is calculated for every run a horse has so the 'base' is the best of these. To find the 'base' you need to understand class and handicapping ratings. A high quality Group One race may be rated as a 66Kg race, whilst a Maiden event at packenham may be rated a 40Kg race or 26Kg different in class. Here are two examples:

Kingston Town wins the Cox Plate rated a 64Kg race and he carries 59Kg in weight. he suffered no interference and the race was run clean and did not run wide. The 'limit' weight for the race was 51Kg so he carried 8Kg at WFA conditions (51 + 8 = 59Kg) so his 'base' here is the class 64 + weight  8Kg = 72Kg

Zephyr Dot wins a Class 1 event rated 43Kg for class and carries 55Kg in a 51 limit race so rates 47Kg (43 + 4).

1.5Kg = 1 length so if they finish 2 lengths back you minus 3kg off their base. You also adjust for wide running, checks, bad draws or runs in races etc as this is where knowledge = value

Just as a guide here are some of our "class" ratings
 

3yo restricted  = 45Kg

3yo open city = 50Kg

Restricted Hcp City = 52Kg

Open City Hcp = 56Kg

What is age improvement?

Horses improve naturally as they mature and thus so do their ratings. Some sprinting types mature quickly and can jump ratings 4-5Kg easily from 2yo to 3yo. Some staying types can improve steadily each year from 3, 4 5 and 6 but rarely improve from 7yo.

It is risky betting when there are horses first up with age improvement because it is difficult to assess. Avoid betting where the main chances are first up.

What about form improvement and patterns?

This could fill a book! Each horse has its own form pattern from steady increase, trough pattern where they build up to their best after 4 starts, plateau, then decline, or occasionally start high and simply decline. Some trainers have this pattern as well!!

Check out Racing and Sports ratings graphs for horses and it gives a great picture of these patterns and helps you predict next start. Email us if you don't understand.

How do you assess "pace" in a race?

Essentially experience of the beasts themselves and the jockeys. It is important though, much more so than barriers! racing & Sports have a speed map tool but it is very average in accuracy. Expertform has a better one but it is costly! We give horses a bonus of up to 3kg if they are likely to race on the pace in a slow run race, and up to -3.0 if out the back in a slow run race etc

The impact of weight?

We typically use a 51Kg 'limit' for most races. So, if a horses is carrying 56Kg it is 5Kg over the limit and this 5kg gets taken off their race day rating. Some horses handle big weights better than others (e.g. Desert War) so we need to be wary of being too methodic with this factor.

Looking at track/distance and barriers

Check out our growing info base on tracks and barriers and the Kg disadvantages

How do you pull it all together to get a race rating?

Easy! Look at our ratings for the big races. Desert War in the Queen Elizabeth has a 'base' rating this time of 65.0 but his previous form patterns suggest he can run a 68 now so it is +3.0 Kg on his base (or form improvement). He gets 1.0 for consistency in winning (winning horses keep winning, losers keep losing), track bonus of 1.0 because he goes well at randwick and 1.5 bonus for distance where he rates highest. He carries 59 at WFA so -8.0 Kg from a 51 limit. Minus 1.5 for Blake Shinn(-3.0 is an average jockey rating)His rating is thus 65+3+1.0+1.5-1.5-8.0 = 61.0

Who are the best "tipsters" to follow or do they all lose?

Most tipsters in the media lose if you bet on them flat stake. Years ago we did an analysis on the 3UZ best bets from the trackmen and the only one to show profit was Les O/Briem from Mornington, but that was a long time ago. More recently a friend of ours did some checking over the last 18 months and Dean Lester had a strike rate of 30% on his Melb best bets on Saturdays and made 15 % profit on outlay, but all others lost. The last 5 months Tony Brassel best bets had a great strike rate of 33% but the average price was only $2.60!

We aren't precious here at Tajodds so if you think you have found a great value tipster let us know and we will research them over the year. Remember, nearly ALL media tipsters lose on outlay even with their best bets and rarely, if ever quote value prices. How can you win when you don't know what the value is????